What’s the most reliable way to identify an amateur at a poker table? I’ll give you a hint, it’s not the guy making mistakes. It’s the one who gets loudly angry at him for making mistakes, when he loses in an unlikely fashion he just can’t stand to keep his mouth shut and just has to explain at length why he shouldn’t have lost and why the other guy made such a big mistake. In poker, you want your opponents to make mistakes, why would you explain what they did wrong? The reason is that the amateur’s sense of self-worth is wrapped up in winning each hand. If he* loses, to soothe his ego he has to explain why he made the “right” decision and the other person made the “wrong” decision. He* has traded his ego for future profits. I hope that I’m not showing off my amatuerishness doing precisely the same thing here.
I read this (If You Have Savings In Your 20s, Something’s Wrong) article. Please take a moment and read it, or at least the opening few paragraphs. I suppose if the author, Lauren Martin, decides to use all of her savings eating out, buying clothes and going out at night, all the better for me. The dollars she spends wind up (in a very small part) going into my pocket. In a sense this is a perfectly fair transaction. She works at a magazine which earns money in part by selling advertisements for companies I own (like t-mobile), through a broker (looks like google ad services) that I own, then spends that money at businesses that I own. I’d be willing to bet that she hasn’t gone a day without somehow giving a little bit of money. How do I achieve this feat? Well, I contribute to a 401(K) type plan (here’s what she had to say about those):
When you care about your 401k, your life is just “k”
When you’re 40, you’re not going to look back on your 20s and be grateful for the few thousand you saved. You’re going to be full of regret.
You’ll regret the experiences you didn’t take, the people you didn’t meet and the fun you didn’t have because you were too worried about a future that came and went.
I’m not quite sure what kind of world it would be if the difference between me saving 10% of my income and saving 0% of my income caused me to miss out on a lot of experiences, people, and fun. Honestly, I find that the first dollar I earn is really important to me, the second dollar is less so, but the last dollar I earn? It isn’t critical to my happiness, people may find it hard to believe, but I don’t miss my 401k savings.
Now I’m inclined to think this is all okay. I don’t need to consume everything I earn right now to be happy, evidently this girl does. We’ve found an agreeable arrangement where I provide my capital to businesses which are required to keep Lauren happy. In return I get to earn a profit on that capital. Fair deal, right?
They want us to save because it provides us with a safety net, but that’s exactly why we shouldn’t. Their need for us to have a safety net is just a giant metaphor for the difference between our parent’s generation and ours.
The only problem that I have with this is that I don’t honestly believe that Lauren has thought this all the way through. She seems to think that money represents safety. It can. If you have a nest egg you are more capable of dealing with problems as they come, but that’s not the real reason. You buy insurance for safety. If you lose your job, that’s what unemployment insurance is for. If you get sick, that’s what health insurance is for. If you become disabled, disability insurance. If you die, life insurance. These are important things to have, and you often need a little savings to supplement them. However, it is not the reason that we save.
The Real Reason to Save
Freedom is the real reason. Savings give you options. Options that folks that won’t save don’t have. A little savings gives you a few options. If you save up six months of expenses that’s six months of your life that you can do anything you want with. I had a close friend that also has the savings bug. I’ve not seen her deprive herself of the company of friends or eating out in my memory. Nevertheless she managed to save some money. Last year she quit her job to go study a language in Europe for six weeks. According to her it was an irreplaceable experience. Someone who spends every last dime doesn’t have that kind of flexibility in their lives.
What if you save more money?
Six months of expenses is enough to allow you to quit your job and not worry. You’ve got plenty of time to find another one. What if you save more though? The 4% rule is a common rule in early retirement the basic idea is that if you only spending 4% of your invested capital annually you will probably never run out of money. You could spend the same amount (adjusted for inflation) every year and more likely than not end up with more money by the day you die. That means to quit your job (permanently) you just need to save up 25 times this year’s expenses. (Granted that’s a massive amount). It also means that if you save up 6 years of expenses, you would only need to cover nine months worth of expenses out of a year. You could take a 3-month sabbatical to somewhere new every year, forever. If you save up 12 years of expenses, that’s only half the year you need to work. The profits from all the 20-somethings in the world spending their every last dime “enjoying life” really add up, don’t they?
I couldn’t enjoy my life because I was too busy worrying about my bank statement. I was too busy watching my savings instead of savoring my youth.
Lauren really hits the right sentiment here. This is a personal finance blog. We think about bank statements here, but we think about them so that we don’t have to worry about them. Savoring life is deeply important. Fortunately, it’s possible, even advisable, to do that with less money. Ultimately, I think the approach of Thoreau (28 when he went to Walden) rings truer to me than Lauren’s. He said:
I went to the woods because I wished to live deliberately, to front only the essential facts of life, and see if I could not learn what it had to teach, and not, when I came to die, discover that I had not lived.
Thoreau kept a very careful account of all the money he spent over the two years at Walden pond, it works out to roughly $870 in today’s dollars, I guess he didn’t need to spend money to enjoy life. My suspicion is that he had the more memorable time.
* Yes, I know I’m using the male pronoun here. There is a simple reason. I’ve never once in my life seen a female poker player behave this stupidly. Perhaps I’m being sexist. If someone can provide me an example of one woman they’ve ever seen do this I’d be happy to edit into the he/she construction.
I don’t know about you but every time I get the thought that I should be trying to make extra income I go to google (the best website) to solve my problem. Inevitably suggestions always seem to be the same thing, “sell your stuff on craigslist/ebay/garage sale”, “Tutor some folks for some extra cash”, “Use bank sign-up bonuses”. Here are four idea’s that I’m pretty sure you haven’t tried. Now many of these require some actual effort on your part. For that reason I expect about no more than 10% of you to actually make any money from this article. But the rest of you can dream about what it would be like if you were willing to make an effort, right?
- Buy a candy/gumball machine.
- The machines sell for the low 100’s of dollars. You can buy the gumballs for about $35 per 850 (same site dudes). If you sell each one for $0.25 that means that you earn about $200 on that 850 gumball unit. Your profit margin is over 80%.
- Here are the other bits that matter: what is your time to refill and repair the machine worth? Figure each refill takes an hour charging $50 per hour (including drive time etc). Figure another hour every other refill spent performing maintenance. This works out to subtracting $75 off of our refill revenue of $200. This leaves us with a gross profit of $90 per refill. Assuming that each machine will last 5 years (depreciation of $27 per year), our question becomes can you do at least $40 of profit per year. In other words can you sell all your gumballs once every 2.25 years? Generally the answer is that you can do far better than that.
- The Hard Part: You need locations. I assume that you aren’t selling these out of your home. You need to convince some place with a waiting room to let you set up a gumball machine. You can’t pay anything remotely resembling a reasonable fee. It’s not like you can offer them $20 a month for the space. That’d eat your profits alive. One suggestion I’ve heard is to tell them that you donate a portion of your revenue to charity. Say 10%? Your margins are great, so you can definitely afford this. You’re going to get shot down a bunch of times. Such is life.
- Offer to do long distance deliveries.
- Some businesses are occasionally would like to make a substantial delivery somewhere quite distant. Maybe they’re new, maybe they offer catering services of some sort. The value you can offer here is pretty substantial. Just make sure you charge enough (at least 60 cents per mile, more in the city).
- The Hard Part: Again you need to talk to actual human beings. Ideally you print up some business cards and offer the service to them before they actually need it. Do this for enough businesses and just wait for one of them to get in a bind. It’s best to look at newer businesses/restaurants and ones that sell a unique food or product. This is never going to work out if you hand your card over to the dominoes guy.
- Buy Half-Dollars
- I’m probably cheating with this one. You’ve probably heard about doing it, but its such a neat thing I can’t help but mention it.
- Ask the bank teller if they have any Roosevelt half-dollars. Later, at home, you go through them. You are looking for coins dated before 1970 (and ones marked 1976 S!). These have silver content, and they are worth ~$3-6. So you get $100 worth of them and you might get a couple, netting you 2-4% on your money.
- The Hard Part: The amount of money from this is tiny even though the return is good. This all comes down to how quickly you can check 200 half-dollars. If it takes you more than ten minutes, this is a bust. As far as banks go, I’d check in on ones while you’re on vacation.
- Vehicular Arbitrage
- This I’ve never tried but I’d be interested to hear the experience of folks. Buy a truck at an oilfield auction. It may be that oil-fields are pushing their fleet a little harder than usual with oil prices being down, so this may not be quite as common anymore. Keep in mind you are essentially buying a seat and a heater, these are no-frills trucks.
- Drive this truck to a State where trucks are more expensive, California comes to mind, but you may find something better nearby.
- The Hard Part: I have no clue. There are a lot of moving parts here. Get to an auction. Verify that prices are lower at auction than where you plan on selling it. Account for sales tax. Account for all of the little registration fee’s etc that are going to eat into your profit. The bonus here is that you get a subsidized road trip. I bet you’ve got to double your money on this before costs for it to be worth it.
These things all sound like a big pain in the neck, but they seem like they might lead to a fun story too. I don’t know, maybe you should just eBay all the crap you bought yesteryear like every other blog tells you to. It’s certainly easier, and you don’t have to have a conversation that gets you rejected. (Though I’ve always found the fees and shipping on eBay to make my life a little difficult, but your mileage may vary, and it’s got to be less of a pain that digging through quarters.)
Who’s going to win the 2016 election? There are a number of ways to figure this out. Some people look at polling data. Other people build models based on theories they have about how elections work. Some folks might argue that its nearly unpredictable, because elections should be nail bitingly close. In my favorite article on the subject Mickey Kaus argues that elections should split nearly 50-50 going for as long as we have a two party system. The basic argument here is that each party wants to win elections and stay true to its philosophy. Therefore, each party moderates their platform just enough to convince exactly the necessary number of people to vote for them. This is referred to as median voter theorem. In my view, none of these are the best way to determine who will win the election.
The Prediction Market
People are biased. They also let their biases influence their view of reality, especially if this view has no consequences. A twitter analysis showed that pundits are correct 47% of the time. People somehow become remarkably less biased when they are responsible for their predictions. Rather than looking at polls maybe you want to see what a bunch of people who actually have something to lose thought would happen. Enter the prediction market, in this case PredictIt.org. In a prediction market people buy and sell basically bets on how a particular political event will turn out. This has an advantage over regular sports-betting or political-betting in that odds aren’t set by a single experienced person. Instead odds are determined by the market. PredictIt makes this simple and pays out $1 to each holder of a correct bet. Therefore, all bets trade at fractions of a dollar. These fractions correspond to the percentage chance of the bet coming true. If Hillary Clinton has a 50% of winning the presidency, then a rational person would be willing to pay no more than 50 cents for the right to receive $1 if she wins.
On your first pass you would think that it appears that Hillary Clinton is most likely to win both the Democratic nomination (63% chance) and the presidency (42% chance). The person with the second best chance to win the presidency is Jeb Bush with 26%. (Add those together and ponder that depressing fact.) Particularly astute observers will note that there’s something funky going on here. If you add up the chance of each candidate winning you end up with more than 100%. Shouldn’t this be impossible? Shouldn’t astute traders bet no against everyone in order to collect a risk-free profit?
The answer is that an arbitrageur needs to get paid for their time and risk. If they make a bet today they still have to wait until November 2016 in order for the bet to pay off. If you assume that they need to get paid 10% on their money for their time these numbers start to make a great deal more sense. Take the “Buy No” chance and multiply it by 10% to get the opportunity cost of holding the contract. Then subtract this number from the “Latest” value. Suddenly all of the values sum to nearly 100% as expected. After making this adjustment, we realize that the standings are:
- Hillary Clinton (36.4% chance)
- Jeb Bush (18.5% chance)
- Bernie Sanders (10.9% chance)
- Donald Trump (8.4% chance)
- Marco Rubio (7.4% chance)
- Joe Biden (4.3% chance)
- John Kasich (3.1% chance)*
- Ben Carson (3.0% chance)
- Carly Fiorina (2.9% chance)
- Scott Walker (0.7% chance)
- Remaining ~7 billion people (4.6% chance)
As always, a number is useless without a +/- uncertainty attached to it. In this case the uncertainty may be estimated as the spread between the buy and sell for each bet. For example, you can buy Hillary Clinton to win at 47 cents, but only sell it for 44 cents. This implies an uncertainty of 3%. (So, in honesty I have too many digits of accuracy on these guys).
Just a few comments, first I’m firmly convinced that this is the “best guess”. These are folks who have real money on the line. Fortunately if you disagree, suppose you’re Nate Silver and you think Donald Trump has a substantially lower chance, you have every opportunity to put your money where your mouth is. (Good luck with that!**) Second, its a little relaxing to see that there’s a 80.7% chance that someone not-crazy will get elected. I sleep a little sounder knowing that.
*You may notice that I removed Chris Christie. While the last trade for him took place at 12 cents the current bidding is between 8 and 4 cents per share. The new bid-ask represents the most up to date information in illiquid markets.
**Disclaimer: You’ll probably lose all your money if you even think about this. Yup, there it went.
Well, I took those SBA courses. The “legal requirements for small business” seemed pretty useful. The most salient point to me, which I hadn’t realized was that getting set up for sales taxes looks like a pain. I don’t believe that sales tax will have to be charged on a tutoring business, but this is a really easy thing to forget if your current experience selling stuff simply involves eBay.
Step 3: Choose a location
This is fortunately a simple step for me. I’ll be operating entirely at a location determined at the time of tutoring. For you this may not be so simple. Unfortunately, it’s an area I have little knowledge about, but if anyone out there would like to chime in, well, I guess I’d just find it pretty darn helpful.
Step 4: Finance Your Business
The rules for financing a business seem quite complicated. I’ve read a very useful article that seem to indicate that raising funding by selling shares of the business could cause trouble with the SEC (seriously read it, its super interesting). The SBA website seems to largely concentrate on loan products that it offers. Today, given a prototype product, one can always look into using Kickstarter or GoFundMe. Fortunately, my hypothetical business doesn’t require a great deal of funding.
Step 5: Determine the legal structure of your business
There are basically five different ways to organize a business in a legal sense:
- Sole Proprietorship
- If you don’t incorporate the business, then this is you. You will be personally liable for the business’s debts and actions. In other words, “Quantum Tutors” gets sued or goes bankrupt I’m on the hook. The advantage here is that filing taxes is as simple as it gets. You just pay taxes on your profits, though you have to make sure that you also pay the “self employment tax“. The simplicity has to be weighed against the possible liability.
- If you have a partner you can’t do a sole proprietorship, but this is basically the sole-proprietorship for when you’re no longer sole-o (pronounced: solo) (I’m pretty sure this doesn’t even really qualify as a joke). You do have to additionally file 1065 (return of partnership income). This just tells the government how much money the partnership made. You also need to send partners a form (called a K-1) that tells them how much money they made, so that they can appropriately calculate the taxes they owe on those profits. General partners (people who manage the business) are liable for the business’s debts and actions. Limited partners (if it’s a limited partnership) are not liable.
- Corporation (C-Corporation)
- This is the first type of business where profits aren’t simply passed through to the owners for taxation. Here the business calculates its profits, then pays taxes (a progressivish tax that moves from 15 to 39% and then mysteriously settles in on 35%) on those profits to the IRS. When the corporation then pays those profits out (called a dividend) to owners (called shareholders) the shareholders have to pay an additional tax on the dividend. So needless to say, this seems just terrible. It does provide liability protection however.
- S Corporation
- If you meet certain requirements (easy ones for a small business to make) like being a domestic corporation and having less than 100 shareholders. The benefit is that this structure passes losses and profits through to you for paying taxes on (no double taxation!) and also provides liability protection. The S Corp is a legally distinct entity from you.
- Limited Liability Company (…or So That’s What LLC Stands For!)
- The rules for this vary from state to state, but the important bits for me are that it is quite similar to the s-corp in terms of the ability to pass through taxes (though this can vary from state to state) and also does what it says on the tin. (Limits liability for those of you too scared/wise to click on a tvtropes link)
For my tutoring business I will certainly go with a Sole Proprietorship as all of the other structures simply have advantages that aren’t important for the sort of business I’m starting. Anyone else working on a business? Have you gotten stuck anywhere in the process? Think of any uses of a C corp that a small business might actually care about?
Alright, I know that I owe you part 2 to the how to start a business series. I am far more excited than I have any right to be about what I just learned about google sheets and google finance. If you don’t know what google sheets is, its part of google drive, which is a cloud based storage service. (Perhaps you’ve heard it called google docs?) If you’ve never heard of, nor used this, just get a gmail account and start messing with it. I do a great deal of collaboration via Google drive and I’m a big fan. If you’ve never used Sheets before it is Google’s answer to Microsoft Excel. (If you don’t know what Microsoft Excel is, I don’t even know what to say. I’m not even sure whether you’re too young or too old. I guess there’s an explanation available here.) Google finance is a service that gives information about stocks. Being able to combine the two is fun only if you’re a gigantic nerd that spends his/her time data crunching his/her investments. Maybe you wouldn’t like it if you hate money, I don’t know.
Get to the point
The tool basically acts like a function. You type in “=GOOGLEFINANCE”, then put some parameters in parentheses and you’ve done it. The first parameter needs to be a ticker, and the second parameter tells the function what information you want about the ticker. For example, lets say I want some information about Exxon Mobil. Exxon Mobil’s ticker is XOM. The information I want is the current price. I would go into google sheets and type:
and that’s it. After pressing enter the spreadsheet will update with the price. Currently the different attributes you can get about stocks is quite limited. Mostly this might be useful for investors who invest on the basis of technical analysis. If you’re really a wizard at this you may be able to use it to give yourself automated buy/sell recommendations. (I say wizard in part because we all know technical analysis is make believe.)
But I suck at spreadsheets
Well fear not! I whipped one up recently that I thought was useful. Linked is a copy of a spreadsheet I use to track different mergers and the possible profit which can be made by buying into the merger. Don’t edit the greyed out columns. The white columns need to be filled in by you for future mergers. This is an example, not a recommendation. If you buy any of the stocks listed on this spreadsheet, you’ll probably lose all of your money, your spouse will leave you, and you’ll inadvertently start the apocalypse. Let me say it again by paraphrasing Penny Arcade**:
If you buy any of these stocks because they are listed on this spreadsheet – I will kill myself*. And when my tainted spirit finds its destination, I will topple the master of that dark place. From my black throne, I will lash together a machine of bone and blood, and fueled by your hubris this engine will bore a hole between this world and that one. When it begins you will hear the sound of money burning – as though from a great distance. A smoking orb of nothing will grow above your bank, and from it will emerge a thousand starving crows. As I slip through the widening maw in my new form, you will catch only a glimpse of my radiance before you are incinerated. Then, as tears of bubbling pitch stream down my face, my dark work will begin. I will open one of my six mouths, and I will sing the song that ends the Earth.
*No. I’m not actually going to do that.
**Maybe if I read fewer webcomics and worked more I’d be a multi-thousandaire instead of a regular thousandaire
Ah labor day, what a great day to learn how to start a business. Everytime I’ve ever thought, “gee, I should start a business” I’ve had a great deal of difficulty getting started. All of the information on the subject seems to be from folks who have done it so many times that they leave out details that feel important to me. There seems all of this information on how to start a business but its all like, “Decide what to do”, “Do market research”, and then there’s like one little note on the actual legal process of starting a business. In this series I’m going to start an actual business. It’ll be a dummy business. We’re going to actually detail the whole process. I’m going to base the series off of the SBA’s 10 step plan.
Step 1: Write a business plan
A business plan is an essential roadmap for business success. This living document generally projects 3-5 years ahead and outlines the route a company intends to take to grow revenues. -From SBA’s website
Before starting a business you should probably sit down with an excel spreadsheet and start making conservative assumptions about costs. Make sure that you’d actually make money with conservative assumptions. Preferably start with a business that doesn’t have any start up costs. This seems to be the safest approach. For example, I do a lot of tutoring as a contractor through WyzAnt.com. For this series I’ll be starting my own tutoring business. For such a simple business going through this whole process is probably unnecessary, but the real point here is to learn.
Sample Business Plan
The one paragraph business plan: “Quantum Tutor” (working title) will be a business which specializes in tutoring upper division physics students in their courses. The knowledge required is very specialized and there are few available tutors with the requisite training. I will therefore charge a premium to typical tutoring services ~$50 per hour. This will be a small side-gig and I expect to do no more than ~5 hours a week of tutoring. Therefore the expected revenue in the first year is $12,500 at maximum.
If I needed investors, which I don’t, this would be my “elevator pitch”. Simple, straightforward and enough to get started.
Step 2: Get Business Assistance and Training
The SBA website has a bunch of free training and counselling services. Between now and Wednesday I plan on taking the “Legal requirements for small businesses course” and the “Customer Service” course. Both are available on the website under step #2. Both are expected to take 30 minutes. Go ahead and find some courses that interest you and start working on them, and maybe between all of us we can cobble some useful knowledge together.